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Inside the tech earnings picture

Inside the tech earnings picture

The tech-stock earnings issued last night did little to clear up an out-of-focus picture. Companies continue o meet or even beat profit forecasts, but prospects for real revenue jumps remain uncertain. One example: Applied Materials (AMAT, news, msgs) sees fantastic need for its latest-generation products. Trouble is, clients aren’t ready to bite. The company is the biggest maker of chip-manufacturing equipment -- tools that have languished a bit as the tech economy contracted.

CEO James Morgan insists the business world is on the verge of another “technology refresh” -- his term for a mass overhaul of technology assembly lines. Applied hopes to feed a new hunger for equipment to make smaller, faster, more efficient microchips.

“Almost all ... the games, the DVDs, the various types of monitors, the new wireless phones -- they all require the new chips,” Morgan told CNBC. “We expect a lot of orders for that equipment in the next few quarters.”

He argues that technology production was last refreshed in 1999 to head off any Y2K issues. And he thinks a three-year cycle is at work.

Applied’s orders grew 50% in its latest quarter from the quarter before, but revenue fell 84% from a year ago. The company last night reported per-share earnings of 3 cents. That was a penny ahead of forecasts.

More from tech big dogs, pups

Tales told overnight by Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, news, msgs) and Network Appliance (NTAP, news, msgs) sound quite similar.

H-P, reporting on its last quarter before merging with Compaq, posted a big gain in profit for its second quarter, driven by cost-cutting efforts and strong printer sales. But revenues dropped 9%, as tech spending by business and consumers remained weak.

The company doesn't see the revenue weakness turning around until next year, which isn’t good news. Shares were down 6% this morning, making it one of the big drags on the Dow.

Meanwhile, shares of network-storage firm Network Appliance fell 11% today, despite its report that it earned 4 cents a share in the quarter -- double the profit in the same quarter last year.

Chief Executive Dan Warmenhoven told Reuters that his company was gaining on rival EMC Corp. (EMC, news, msgs). It needs to, as revenue forecasts depend on capturing more market share unless the economy recovers faster than the tech world seems to expect.

Guidance was similar from BEA Systems (BEAS, news, msgs), , which forecast flat results for the current quarter and lowered its revenue outlook for the fiscal year ending in January. (BEA did beat analyst forecasts; so did Computer Associates (CA, news, msgs) and Computer Sciences (CSC, news, msgs).)

Still, those weak forecasts seem have done little but slow the tech rally. Tech stocks may have hit a turning point, though tech profits seem to be another matter.

On the purely negative end of the news spectrum, Adelphia Communications (ADLAE, news, msgs) finds its shares down more than 40% on word its CEO has resigned and its annual report will be delayed. The company’s off-balance-sheet dealings are under investigation. John Rigas, a cable pioneer, had led the company for 50 years.

A game-playing price war

Blasting away at aliens, racing in the streets and building civilizations is getting cheaper.

MSN Money parent Microsoft (MSFT, news, msgs) announced today it will cut the price of its Xbox game console in the United States, Canada and Japan. The U.S. price drops from $299 to $199.

That comes just two days after Sony (SNE, news, msgs) dropped the U.S. price of its leading PlayStation 2 to $199. Most expect Nintendo (NTDOY, news, msgs), the third big game maker, to follow with something similar.

Microsoft shares are off a bit this morning, but it's hard to tell if the Xbox news plays into that. The company, new to the game-player market, has been losing money on the player anyway as it tries to build up market share.

Sony shares are up a fraction today and rose big yesterday -- but so did most everything, including Microsoft.

So shareholders may or may not benefit. But kids huddled over their TVs banging away at keypads can all chalk up a win.