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Lucent rallies, but uncertainty lingers

MURRAY HILL, N.J. (CBS.MW) -- After sinking to as low as 55 cents, shares of Lucent Technologies have rebounded strongly over the past two months, tripling in price.

And they rose almost 22 percent Monday.

Evidence that the threat of bankruptcy has receded? Signal that the beleaguered telecommunications equipment maker is recovering? Start of a long-term rally?

Not quite, analysts say.

Like virtually every other telecom company, Lucent is benefiting from widespread U.S. stock recovery after months of repeated blows.

Since touching a five-year low of 7,197 in October, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has surged about 23 percent to its current level of 8,849.

During the market's retreat, telecom stocks suffered more than other sectors. As is typically the case, the sectors that were beaten down the worst tend to outpace the rest of the market in an ensuing rebound.

"There's been a broad rally in telecom-related stocks," said analyst Timothy Slevin of Parker/Hunter. But he and other analysts say they haven't seen a corresponding improvement in the business fortunes of those companies - or even a hint of better things to come.

Consider trading in Lucent (LU) on Monday. The company said it will broaden an "alliance" with Sun Microsystems, but it did not offer information in its press release on how the deal will benefit Lucent's sales or profits. Normally, such announcements have little effect on stock movement.