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Ford officials said projected output of 980,000 vehicles by the world's second-largest automaker -- a cut of 196,000 vehicles from a year ago -- was a little lower than they had hoped for. But they added that the mood of consumers had worsened over the past few weeks.

"It's pretty clear that consumer confidence has slipped," said George Pipas, Ford's manager for sales analysis. "It's an equal measure of concerns about geopolitical instability and the prospects for a conflict. There hasn't been much good news as it relates to jobs," he said.

"If there's a conflict, we would expect to see a pretty good drop-off," Pipas added.

Ford was scheduled to release the information on its production plan earlier this month, but decided to wait to gauge the effect of harsh winter weather on February's sales. General Motors Corp.'s (NYSE:GM - News) second-quarter production estimate is 10 percent below last year's results.

Ford was scheduled to release the information on its production plan earlier this month, but decided to wait to gauge the effect of harsh winter weather on February's sales. General Motors Corp.'s (NYSE:GM - News) second-quarter production estimate is 10 percent below last year's results.

Had February's results been hurt exclusively by snowstorms along the East Coast, Pipas said Ford would have made a slightly higher estimate. But the analysis showed the weather had not seriously affected sales, which hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.4 million, their second-lowest in four years.

Automakers book revenue from vehicles when they are built instead of when they are sold, making production estimates a harbinger of revenues and earnings. The lack of a forecast fed investors' worries about Ford, including weak U.S. industry sales and continuing doubt that Ford can meet its financial targets this year in a weakening economy.

For the time being, however, Ford said there was no change in its full-year earnings estimate of 70 cents a share, or roughly $1.2 billion, nor its goals for growing its U.S. market share.

BLOATED INVENTORIES

Pipas said last year's second-quarter production was inflated because Ford was trying to rebuild inventories. This year, inventories are running high; Ford had an 83 days' supply of vehicles at the end of February, 15 percent more than last year and well above the average of 70 days, according to Ward's Automotive.

The company is also lowering production of its F-150 pickups as it prepares to build an all-new version. And it has stopped building a number of models, including the Mercury Villager minivan and the Lincoln Continental sedan, as part of its turnaround plan.