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Sept. 18, CHICAGO (Reuters) - With
Lucent Technologies Inc.'s revenue slumping, its stock below a dollar and
the outlook for telecommunications still bleak, fears about the
money-losing equipment maker's future are intensifying among some
investors.
"We don't really know where the bottom is," said Shawn Campbell, analyst with Northern Trust Corp.'s asset management arm, one of Lucent's larger shareholders at the end of June with about 13.6 million shares. "The liquidity question ... is now a legitimate concern again." The Murray Hill, New Jersey-based company said last week its losses for the quarter ending in September would be much worse than analysts had feared and more job cuts were likely. That led some investors and analysts to worry whether Lucent can maintain the necessary finances to survive long-term. Shares of the company have lost around 93 percent of their value since Lucent launched a restructuring in January 2001, and dipped below $1 on the New York Stock Exchange ( news - web sites) this week. Lucent officials and other investors, however, dismiss fears the company will be forced to seek bankruptcy protection, arguing it has the necessary funds, no near-term debt requirements and several strong products. Some industry experts note that several Lucent rivals are weaker. "Can Lucent survive? The answer is yes. Some of its competitors, specifically Nortel (Networks Corp. ), are in worse shape," said Frank Dzubeck, president of Washington consulting firm Communications Networks Architects. STOCK SLIDE But the fears remain, as Lucent's stock dropped by nearly half since before it warned about its fiscal fourth quarter last week. In the same period, the American Stock Exchange Network Index <.NWX>, an industry proxy, fell about 16 percent. On Wednesday morning, the stock dropped as much as 18 cents, or 18 percent, to 82 cents a share -- its lowest intraday price since its 1996 spin-off from AT&T Corp. . It later trimmed the loss to trade at 92 cents in early afternoon dealings. Some investors said Lucent, with nine straight quarterly losses, needs to take more drastic action than it has. Since January 2001, Lucent has sliced its work force by 42 percent to about 45,000 from 106,000, cut spending and costs, sold noncore units and eliminated money-losing products. It said last week it will make more cuts to further lower its break-even point, but details will not be available until its fourth-quarter conference call on Oct. 23. Several analysts have said Lucent's employment needs to be cut to as low as 30,000 if the company is to meet its goal of returning to profits by September 2003. ASSET SALES NEEDED More than job reductions will be needed, and that will mean cutting into what up to now have been considered key assets, including its storied Bell Labs research unit, some analysts and investors agreed. "I would think they've got to start selling some assets sometime soon," said one industry investment banker, who asked not to be identified. "They are really running out of options." Lucent should spin off, sell or seek a partner for its wireless business because that sector is expected to struggle in the near term, several analysts said. That business accounts for about half of Lucent's revenue. "They have to go back to the drawing board and rethink what they want to be," Northern Trust's Campbell said. "Everything needs to be back on the table." Another option that should at least be considered, he said, is a merger such as the deal with France's Alcatel that fell apart last year due to control issues. Lucent also does not make an attractive acquisition target. Lucent's repeated cost-cutting actions and the associated charges have some analysts worried that the company might weaken its cash position. "Constant restructuring is an extremely difficult environment," said Nick Nilarp, debt analyst with Fitch Ratings, which last week downgraded Lucent's credit rating. Lucent, which says it has enough money to fund its operations, had $5.4 billion in cash and short-term investments, and $5.2 billion of combined debt and preferred stock outstanding at the end of June. The company said it does not have any debt payments for some time, with its preferred convertible stock offering not redeemable until August 2004 and its long-term debt not due until the summer of 2006. It also has not drawn on its $1.5 billion credit line. Lucent still has its defenders, although some are gritting their teeth as the losses mount. "You have to close your eyes and hold your nose," said David Katz, chief investment officer of Matrix Asset Advisors, a New York investment management firm that owns about 2.4 million Lucent shares. |